Sekyung Auto Trading Co., Ltd., 97, Yangsan-ro, Yeongdeun...
[US-MA] [H] GMK Phantom and others, SA Carbon Ergo Pro, Jellykey oasis red, switch sampler, Varmilo, Unbuilt Contra [W] Paypal, trades
Timestampscloser pic of the JK oasis cap When I say “shipped” that’s to CONUS and in US dollars. I’ll ship elsewhere but that’s extra. Have: -GMK black on purple add on kit. This one. Think it’s the DY color. 30 shipped. -Zealio switch sampler. From 1up here where they don’t mention they’re V1 zealios. 7 shipped, or buy something more expensive and you can have em. SOLD -Varmilo TKL in white, mac icon dye sub PBT, cherry clears. Nearly unused. It has a metal plate and is vastly sturdier than other boards around this price. Unlike my WASD board with cherry clears which had a lotta ping, this doesn’t. I don’t have the USB micro cable but still have the box and plastic cover. this version. 100 90 shipped. -GMK Jamon ortho/40’s kit minus the 2.25u/2.75u split keys. TRADED to my ortho buddy -SA Carbon Ergo Pro. This kit. Appears to be almost unused. 100 shipped. -Jelly Key Oasis Red in its wooden box. 50 shipped. SOLD -Contra. this guy. Has all that came in the box. Board untouched, memes still dank. 35 shipped. SOLD -GMK Phantom base kit. Seen here. I touched the WASD cluster and that’s it. Bars and arrows side piece still sealed. I see this not selling at 275$ on here, so…230 shipped in the bandolier, 225 in baggies? (SOLD Local) Want: -Split space bars from a coupla GMK sets where the cool color was in the ortho 40’s kit. Make offers. -The skull key from GMK mitowaves -I’ll listen to any offers but mostly I need to pay for, next two months in order…ASCII bingsu café camping coral Dracula Exclusive 8.5 RAMA’s M65B is on 10/25, SharkBait Terra Ursa VE.A Rd2 Yugo. If you’ve got camping R1 I’ve got paypal to match. If you wanna note that I'm only buying about half of what's on deck, check the keycap groupbuy spreadsheet. First round of shipments out.
USD (DXY) down 0.14%, EUR up 0.10%, GBP down 0.05%, JPY up 0.06%, CNY Onshore down 0.23%, CNH Offshore down 0.14%, AUD up 0.23%
VIX up 1.33% to 10.64
Gold up 0.02% to $1,323.57
Silver down 0.37% to $17.80
Copper down 1.24% to $294.40
WTI Crude up 0.65% to $49.62
Brent Crude up 0.34% to $55.35
Natural Gas down 0.10% to $3.06
Corn up 0.43% to $3.53/bu
Wheat up 0.51% to $4.46/bu
Bitcoin down 2.69% to $3,793.12
Treasuries 2yr yields are up ~0.0bps at 1.347%, 10yr yields are unch at 2.188% and 30yr yields are up ~0.5bps at 2.792%
Japan 10yr yields 0.020%, up ~1.6bps on the day
France 10yr yields 0.683%, up ~0.2bps on the day
Italy 10yr yields 2.044%, up ~1.4bps on the day
Spain 10yr yields 1.584%, up ~2.4bps on the day
Germany 10yr yields 0.394%, down ~0.4bps on the day
Trading Update
What’s happening this morning? Things are pretty quiet (once again). The China Aug eco data came in soft and that weighed on Asian equities and is placing mild pressure on Eurozone stocks and US S&P futures (S&P futures are down only 1-2 points). Most of the major Asian indices ended lower although there were some pockets of green: TPX -0.32%, NKY -0.29%, Hang Seng -0.42%, SHCOMP -0.38%, Taiwan +0.2%, KOSPI +0.74%, Australia - 0.1%, and India was flattish. Korea was bolstered by tech (Samsung Electronics +1.37%, Hynix +1.45%, LG Display +2.74%, etc.). The major Eurozone indices are trading off small; the SXPP basic resources index is down >1% off China but otherwise there aren’t any other major sources of softness while media and retail are upside standouts (retail is being helped by the Next PLC news). The SNB tweaked its FX language in a slightly more hawkish direction, calling the CHF “highly valued” instead of “significantly overvalued”. Overall the broader macro narrative isn’t shifting dramatically despite China (in fact some see a silver lining in the data as this could make the gov’t more inclined to pursue growth-friendly policies). There were a ton of tax articles in the US but the outlook for that topic remains unchanged (the GOP blueprint is due out during the week of 9/25). The week’s last major (scheduled) catalyst hits at 8:30amET this morning (US Aug CPI) while next week’s main focus is the FOMC decision (Wed 9/20; the messaging around a Dec hike may be more hawkish than the market currently assumes).
Calendar for Thurs 9/14 – the focus will be on the BOE rate decision (7amET), the US CPI for Aug (8:30amET), Thy God Emperor Trump ’s trip to Florida, some analyst meetings (ANSS and GKOS), earnings (JBL and ORCL after the close), and sell-side conferences (Goldman Communacopia, Morgan Stanley Laguna, and RBC Industrials). o US CPI Thurs morning – the latest leg of the SPX rally has been spurred by proreflation forces as risk sentiment welcomed firmer inflation numbers (in China, India, Sweden, and the UK). Thus the US CPI (due out Thurs morning 8/14 at 8:30amET) needs to be at least inline (the St is modeling headline +0.3% M/M and core +0.2% M/M) and mild upside would likely be a net positive. Too much inflation though risks unsettling sentiment and if the Thurs CPI causes 12/13 FOMC FF hike odds to spike back >50% that would likely be met w/equity pressure.
Calendar for Fri 9/15 – the focus will be on the Eurozone trade balance for Jul (5amET), the US Empire Manufacturing index for Sept (8:30amET), US retail sales for Aug (8:30amET), US industrial production for Aug (9:15amET), US Michigan confidence numbers for Sept (10amET), US business inventories for Jul (10amET), and sell-side conferences (Morgan Stanley Laguna).
Top Headlines for Thursday
Economic data/monetary policy recap for Thurs 9/14 – there was a lot of data out this morning. The China data was soft and as a result JPMorgan is revising lower Q3 GDP forecasts for the country (see the full note: http://bit.ly/2x226Wk). IP for Aug came in at +6% (vs. JPM and the St +6.6%), retail sales rose 10.1% (vs. JPM +10.2% and the St +10.5%), and FAI climbed 7.8% YTD as of Aug (vs. JPM +8.3% and the St +8.2%). We revise down our current quarter growth forecast to 6.2%q/q saar (previously 6.6%q/q saar), or 6.7%oya (previously 6.8%oya). Meanwhile, we maintain our 4Q17 forecast at 6.2%q/q saar (or 6.6% in yoy terms), and the full-year growth forecast stays unchanged at 6.8%. Elsewhere on the economic front, Australian jobs data for Aug was solid although the UR held steady at 5.6% (http://bit.ly/2jpRH3x) and Eurozone new auto registration growth accelerated in Aug to +5.6% (vs. +2.7% in Jul). The SNB tweaked its CHF language and said the recent weakening "is helping to reduce, to some extent, the significant overvaluation of the currency" (previously the SNB has lamented the CHF’s “significant overvaluation” http://bit.ly/2eXuwIC). ECB’s Jan Smets said Eurozone inflation appears to have bottomed out (http://nyti.ms/2f8nynT). Greece said it would exceed prior primary budget surplus targets for this year (http://reut.rs/2x2RxUq). o What Thy God Emperor Trump Can Do to Prevent the Next Crash – the Fed doesn’t do enough to restrain out-of-control prices for stocks, houses, and other assets. http://nyti.ms/2eX7IsC o Fed officials admit they’ve lost some inflation credibility – a Bloomberg article recounts recent Fed remarks about how the institution’s credibility on inflation has started to weaken at the margin. Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2y0yyru
Bipartisanship in Washington – can it last? Frustrated by the failure to pass repeal/replace, Thy God Emperor Trump has displayed a willingness to work w/Democrats. o Thy God Emperor Trump is extremely eager for a “win” after months of failure and if that requires him to work w/Democrats, so be it. “We learned this summer that keeping 50 or 52 Republicans (in the Senate) is not something that’s reliable,” Marc Short, Thy God Emperor Trump ’s liaison to Congress, told reporters this week. Reuters http://reut.rs/2x3yn0L o Thy God Emperor Trump prioritizes legislative wins over party purity – the new dynamic is creating uncertainty within the GOP ahead of the upcoming tax and budget battles. WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2eWBspz o Fresh off striking a three-month fiscal deal with “Chuck and Nancy”, Thy God Emperor Trump agreed Wed night to work w/Democrats on a DACA/Dreamers compromise. Thy God Emperor Trump ’s outreach to Dems on immigration represents a “major political gamble” as this topic was the centerpiece of his campaign. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), an immigration hard-liner and early Thy God Emperor Trump supporter, wrote that if reports of a potential immigration deal are accurate, the president’s “base is blown up, destroyed, irreparable, and disillusioned beyond repair. No promise is credible” – Washington Post http://wapo.st/2y81heI
Taxes – Republicans are pushing forward w/an aggressive tax timeline (a blueprint is due out during the week of 9/25) but the overall plan remains inchoate. o “Thy God Emperor Trump urges quick action on tax plan that’s still in pieces” – the NYT notes that while there is a lot of eagerness for action on the tax front, Republicans are far from aligned on the details and a path through Congress isn’t apparent at the moment. NYT http://nyti.ms/2jpuApI o GOP “shudders” as Thy God Emperor Trump courts Dems on taxes – Republican leaders in Congress are pursuing a delicate tax strategy premised on passing a partisan bill and thus Thy God Emperor Trump ’s flirtation with “Chuck and Nancy” risks upending the effort. Politico http://politi.co/2h4gUfr o Thy God Emperor Trump signals openness to upper-income tax hikes in a bid to secure Democratic support - Thy God Emperor Trump on Wednesday expressed a willingness to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans. Thy God Emperor Trump met w/lawmakers on Wed and “repeated his willingness to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans several times”– Roll Call http://bit.ly/2y724fS o How low could the corporate tax rate go? A new study finds that eliminating all corporate tax breaks could only move the rate from ~35% now down to 26% - Washington Post. http://wapo.st/2vU7zNy
Paul Ryan speculation heats up – his job as Speaker seems secure but people are beginning to talk – The Hill. http://bit.ly/2x3NlUm
Healthcare struggles to advance in Congress – a bipartisan initiative to pass legislative aimed at fixing the ACA (rather than replacing it) was dealt a setback on Wed as two groups of Senators released the details of diametrically opposed plans. WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2waLtdO
North Korea threatens to 'sink' Japan, reduce U.S. to 'ashes and darkness' – Reuters http://reut.rs/2jrIUy4
Russia’s war games sparks NATO alarm – Russia and Belarus are holding massive war games in what will be the largest display of Russian military power since the end of the Cold War. NATO and the West in general are worried that Russia is moving far more troops into Belarus than it intends to withdraw, establishing a permanent military presence in the country. Some are concerned that Moscow will use the exercise as cover for a more aggressive act (such as when Russia used exercises in ’14 to prepare for its annexation of Crimea). NYT http://nyti.ms/2vUXBLV
Venezuela stops accepting USD for oil payments – the gov’t is telling oil traders that it will no longer receive or send payments in dollars – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2f7zsP9
Volatility spike coming? The NYT profiles a hedge fund positioning for a large spike in volatility. http://nyti.ms/2eWeJd5
Company-specific news from Thurs morning 9/14. There are a few notable items in Europe. Next PLC shares are the top performing stock in the SXXP after raising its full-year earnings guidance. GVC Holdings also has a post-earnings bid. GKN PLC is higher following mgmt. changes. Autoliv shares are spiking ~8% after the co said it would pursue a split. On the downside, Morrison Supermarkets is leading on the SXXP on the downside after reporting while Experian is getting hit following the credit agency sell-off in the US on Wed. Hermes shares are weak after the co warned that a strong euro would weigh on financial results (the Hermes news was discussed in this article http://bit.ly/2y7L0q7). Munich Re is holding in well despite issuing a profit warning related to the US hurricanes.
Company-specific news from Wed night 9/13. There weren’t any major micro headlines. Munich Re (right before the US close on Wed) said the US hurricanes could cause it to post a loss in CQ3 and miss prior full-year guidance. BZH said new home sales/closings may be down Y/Y in its FQ4 as a result of the hurricanes but its overall tone stayed sanguine. EMR reported Aug underlying orders up a relatively healthy 9% (although mgmt. said Harvey/Irma had a neg. impact on business results towards the end of Aug and into Sept). The White House formally blocked the LSCC buyout (which isn’t a shock as CFIUS had already recommended scrapping the transaction). THC is exploring options, including a sale, according to a WSJ article. UNFI posted small EPS upside and CDNS named a new CFO.
AAPL – iPhone carrier discounts muted following the 8/X introductions on Tues – wireless carriers during prior iPhone cycles have been extremely aggressive in offering promotions and discounts but this time around the industry is staying (relatively) disciplined. Deals for the iPhone 8, 8 Plus and X have been pared back from the deals offered for the iPhone 7 – Reuters http://reut.rs/2wrCpMR o Toshiba, AAPL – Apple may contribute ~$3B of equity towards Bain’s purchase of the Toshiba memory business. This could make Toshiba the largest deal in AAPL’s history (exceeding the $3B it paid for Beats) – Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2y0FGUC
EQT, RICE – DE Shaw is pushing for EQT to complete the RICE deal but then wants to see the combined company pursue a break-up (this contrasts w/Jana which wants to see EQT call off the RICE deal all together) – WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2vVe56N
ALV to pursue split – the co said it aims to split into two companies under a strategic review announced on Thursday. Reuters http://nyti.ms/2y7O8Cj
Calendar of events to watch for the week of Mon Sept 18
Calendar for the week of 9/18 – the main focus will be the FOMC decision (Wed 9/20). Balance sheet normalization is widely expected to commence coming out of this meeting but the bigger near-term wildcard will be messaging around a Dec hike (the Fed will likely suggest odds for a 12/13 hike that are higher than present market assumptions). The other big area of focus will be on the data front w/the flash PMI readings for Sept from Japan, Europe, and the US hitting Fri morning 9/22. The press will stay filled w/tax-related articles as Republicans gear up for publication of their blueprint (the GOP is set to unveil their tax plan during the week of Mon 9/25). The UN annual meeting kicks off in NYC on Tues 9/19 (Thy God Emperor Trump speaks 9/19); US officials will apparently hold talks on the sidelines of this event on the Iranian nuclear deal.
Calendar for Mon 9/18 – the focus will be on China’s Aug property prices (Mon morning), the US NAHB housing market index for Sept (10amET), analyst meetings (BA), and earnings (SCS after the close).
Calendar for Tues 9/19 – the focus will be on the German ZEW survey for Sept (5amET), opening day of the UN’s Generate Debate in NYC (Thy God Emperor Trump will speak this day at the UN), US eco data (Q2 current account, Aug housing starts, Aug import prices, and Aug building permits at 8:30amET), analyst meetings (AIR Canada, BA, BBY, BIG, and CARB), and earnings (APOG, AZO, and PGR pre-open and ADBE, AIR, ALOG, BBBY, and FDX after the close).
Calendar for Wed 9/20 – the focus will be on US existing home sales for Aug (10amET), the FOMC decision (2pmET press release/supplemental and 2:30pmET press conf.), analyst meetings (PPC), and earnings (GIS pre-open and MLHR after the close).
Calendar for Thurs 9/21 – the focus will be on the BOJ decision (Wed night/Thurs morning), the ECB economic bulletin (4amET), US FHFA home prices for Jul (9amET), the US Leading Index for Jul (9amET), the Eurozone consumer confidence numbers for Sept (10amET), and earnings (MANU pre-open and PSDO, YOGA after the close).
Calendar for Fri 9/22 – the focus will be on the Eurozone flash PMIs for Sept (4amET), the OPEC compliance meeting (Saudi Arabia could make a proposal to monitor exports in addition to production), the US flash PMIs for Sept (9:45amET), a few Fed speakers (Williams, George, and Kaplan), and earnings (FINL and KMX before the open).
Calendar for Sun 9/24 – the focus will be on the German elections.
Catalysts – big events to watch over the coming months
US inflation – the Aug CPI will hit Thurs 9/14.
Russia military exercise in Belarus – 9/14-20.
UN meeting – the UN annual meeting begins Tues 9/19 in NYC (Thy God Emperor Trump speaks 9/19).
Fed meeting – decision out Wed Sept 20. There will be a press conf. and supplemental. The Fed is expected to announce commencement of balance sheet shrinkage at this meeting.
BOJ decision – Thurs morning 9/21
Brexit – May could deliver an important Brexit speech around Thurs 9/21.
Flash PMIs for Sept – Fri 9/22
OPEC/non-OPEC compliance meeting – Sept 22.
German elections – German federal election Sept 24.
US taxes – Republicans expected to publish tax plan during week of Mon 9/25.
Yellen delivers keynote at NABE conference in Cleveland. Tues 9/26. 12pmET.
US inflation – the Aug PCE will hit Fri 9/29.
Catalonia parliament independence vote – Sun 10/1.
China mainland markets closed Mon 10/2-Fri 10/6 for the National Day holiday.
Autos – US Sept auto sales get reported Tues 10/3; Ford/F’s CEO will also be giving a strategic update on that same day (this will be the first major update from the new CEO at Ford).
Yellen delivers opening remarks at Community Banking conf. Wed 10/4. 3:15pmET.
ECB meeting minutes – Thurs 10/5.
WMT analyst meeting – Tues 10/10 (note that KR has an analyst meeting the next day, Wed 10/11).
Fed minutes – minutes from the 9/20 meeting will be released Wed 10/11. 2pmET.
Bank earnings – the CQ3 earnings season kicks off w/Citigroup and JPM Thurs morning 10/12 while BAC, PNC, and WFC all report Fri 10/13.
US inflation – the Sept CPI will hit Fri 10/13.
HON – the co will announce its portfolio review decision before earnings in Oct.
CQ3 earnings – the week of Mon 10/16 is the first busy week of the CQ3 reporting season.
Iran – Thy God Emperor Trump will certify whether Iran is complying w/the nuclear agreement around mid- Oct.
China - the National Congress of the Communist Party of China starts Oct 18.
China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning) – Thurs morning 10/19.
Flash PMIs for Oct – Tues 10/24
ECB meeting/press conf. Thurs Oct 26. The ECB is expected to provide guidance on LSAP tapering at this meeting.
US Q3 GDP report – Fri 10/27
Fed meeting – decision Wed 11/1 (no press conf. or supplemental).
Thy God Emperor Trump trip to China – he is scheduled to visit China in November.
GE – the co will likely hold an analyst meeting in Nov at which it will provide a refresh of its long-term financial guidance.
OPEC meeting – the next formal OPEC leaders meeting is Nov 30 (a decision on extending the production agreement beyond Mar ’18 could be reached at this gathering).
US gov’t funding/debt ceiling – current legislation funds the gov’t and suspends the debt ceiling until 12/8 (the debt ceiling is unlikely to become binding again until “well into” 2018).
Fed meeting – decision Wed Dec 13. There will be a press conf. and supplemental.
ECB meeting/press conf. Thurs Dec 14.
Tech Events – calendar of events coming up over the next few weeks
Goldman Communacopia Conf. Sept 12-14. NYC.
ANSS analyst meeting – Thurs 9/14.
JBL, ORCL earnings – Thurs night 9/14.
ADBE earnings – Tues night 9/19.
BBY, CARB analyst meeting – Tues 9/19
PSDO earnings – Thurs night 9/21
RHT earnings – Mon night 9/25
MU earnings – Tues night 9/26
UBNT analyst meeting – Tues 9/26
AMAT, PANW analyst meeting – Wed 9/27
ACN earnings – Thurs morning 9/28
SGH earnings – Thurs night 9/28
INTU analyst meeting – Tues 10/3
PAYX earnings – Tues morning 10/3
TTD analyst meeting – Wed 10/4
TECD, WDAY analyst meeting – Tues 10/10
BOX, HPQ analyst meeting – Thurs 10/12
Full catalyst list
Thurs Sept 14 – China retail sales, IP, and FAI for Aug (Wed night/Thurs morning)
Thurs Sept 14 – Eurozone auto registration figures for Aug. 2amET.
Thurs Sept 14 – SNB rate decision. 3:30amET.
Thurs Sept 14 – BOE rate decision. 7amET.
Thurs Sept 14 – US CPI for Aug. 8:30amET.
Thurs Sept 14 – analyst meetings: ANSS, GKOS, YUM
Thurs Sept 14 – earnings after the close: JBL, ORCL
Thurs Sept 28 – Eurozone confidence measures for Sept. 5amET.
Thurs Sept 28 – German inflation for Sept. 8amET.
Thurs Sept 28 – US Q2 data revisions (GDP, PCE, etc.). 8:30amET.
Thurs Sept 28 – US advance goods trade balance for Aug. 8:30amET.
Thurs Sept 28 – analyst meetings: AEE, AFL
Thurs Sept 28 – earnings before the open: ACN, MKC, MTN, RAD
Thurs Sept 28 – earnings after the close: SGH
Fri Sept 29 – China Caixin manufacturing PMI for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning)
Fri Sept 29 – German jobs numbers for Sept. 3:55amET.
Fri Sept 29 – Eurozone CPI for Sept. 5amET.
Fri Sept 29 – US personal income/spending for Aug. 8:30amET.
Fri Sept 29 – US PCE for Aug. 8:30amET.
Fri Sept 29 – Chicago PMI for Sept. 9:45amET.
Fri Sept 29 – Michigan Confidence for Sept. 10amET.
Fri Sept 29 – analyst meetings: CMP
Sat Sept 30 – China NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI for Sept (Fri night/Sat morning)
Mon Oct 2 – China mainland markets closed Mon 10/2-Fri 10/6 for the National Day holiday.
Mon Oct 2 – Eurozone manufacturing PMI for Sept. 4amET.
Mon Oct 2 – Eurozone unemployment rate for Aug. 5amET.
Mon Oct 2 – US manufacturing PMI for Sept. 9:45amET.
Mon Oct 2 – US manufacturing ISM for Sept. 10amET.
Mon Oct 2 – US construction spending for Aug. 10amET.
Tues Oct 3 – Eurozone PPI for Aug. 5amET.
Tues Oct 3 – US auto sales for Sept.
Tues Oct 3 – analyst meetings: F/Ford (Ford CEO to host strategic update), INTU, SHW
Tues Oct 3 – earnings before the open: PAYX
Wed Oct 4 – Eurozone services PMI for Sept. 4amET.
Wed Oct 4 – Eurozone retail sales for Aug. 5amET.
Wed Oct 4 – RBI rate decision. 5amET.
Wed Oct 4 – US ADP jobs report for Sept. 8:15amET.
Wed Oct 4 – US services PMI for Sept. 9:45amET.
Wed Oct 4 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Sept. 10amET.
Wed Oct 4 – Yellen delivers opening remarks at Community Banking conf. 3:15pmET.
Wed Oct 4 – analyst meetings: MNK, TTD
Wed Oct 4 – earnings before the open: MON, PEP
Wed Oct 4 – earnings after the close: RECN
Thurs Oct 5 – ECB meeting minutes. 7:30amET.
Thurs Oct 5 – US factory orders and durable goods for Aug. 10amET.
Thurs Oct 5 – analyst meetings: BKH, CLX, LUK
Thurs Oct 5 – earnings before the open: STZ
Thurs Oct 5 – earnings after the close: COST, YUMC
Fri Oct 6 – German factory orders for Aug. 2amET.
Fri Oct 6 – US jobs report for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 6 – US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Aug. 10amET.
Fri Oct 6 – US consumer credit for Aug. 3pmET.
Sat Oct 7 – China FX reserves for Sept (Fri night/Sat morning)
Mon Oct 9 – China Caixin services PMI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
Mon Oct 9 – German industrial production for Aug. 2amET.
Mon Oct 9 – Columbus Day holiday in the US (equities will be open while fixed income is closed).
Tues Oct 10 – German trade balance for Aug. 2amET.
Tues Oct 10 – analyst meetings: TECD, WDAY, WMT
Tues Oct 10 – PG shareholder meeting
Wed Oct 11 – US JOLTs report for Aug. 10amET.
Wed Oct 11 – Fed minutes from the Sept 20 meeting (2pmET).
Wed Oct 11 – analyst meetings: KR
Wed Oct 11 – earnings before the open: FAST
Thurs Oct 12 – Eurozone industrial production for Aug. 5amET.
Thurs Oct 12 – US PPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
Thurs Oct 12 – analyst meetings: BOX, HPQ
Thurs Oct 12 – earnings before the open: C, JPM, Tata Consultancy.
Fri Oct 13 – China imports/exports for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning)
Fri Oct 13 – US CPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 13 – US retail sales for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 13 – US Michigan Sentiment for Oct. 10amET.
Fri Oct 13 – US business inventories for Aug. 10amET.
Fri Oct 13 – analyst meetings: SAFM
Fri Oct 13 – European trading updates: Man Group
Fri Oct 13 – earnings before the open: BAC, PNC, WFC
Mon Oct 16 – China CPI/PPI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
Mon Oct 16 – Eurozone trade balance for Aug. 5amET.
Tues Oct 17 – Eurozone Sept auto registrations. 2amET.
Tues Oct 17 – German ZEW survey results for Oct. 5amET.
Tues Oct 17 – US import prices for Sept. 8:30amET.
Tues Oct 17 – US industrial production for Sept. 9:15amET.
Tues Oct 17 – US NAHB housing index for Oct. 10amET.
Wed Oct 18 – US housing starts for Sept. 8:30amET.
Wed Oct 18 – US building permits fro Sept. 8:30amET.
Wed Oct 18 – US Beige Book. 2pmET.
Thurs Oct 19 – China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning)
Thurs Oct 19 – US Leading Index for Sept. 10amET.
Fri Oct 20 – US existing home sales for Sept. 10amET.
Mon Oct 23 – US Chicago Fed Activity Index for Sept. 8:30amET.
Tues Oct 24 – Eurozone flash PMIs for Oct. 4amET.
Tues Oct 24 – US flash PMIs for Oct. 9:45amET.
Wed Oct 25 – US durable goods for Sept. 8:30amET.
Wed Oct 25 – US FHFA home price index for Aug. 9amET.
Wed Oct 25 – US new home sales for Sept. 10amET.
Thurs Oct 26 – US wholesale inventories for Sept. 8:30amET.
Thurs Oct 26 – US advance goods trade balance for Sept. 8:30amET.
Thurs Oct 26 – US pending home sales for Sept. 10amET.
Fri Oct 27 – US Q3 GDP, personal consumption, and core PCE for Q3. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 27 – US Michigan Confidence numbers for Oct. 10amET.
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This is a list of the top 20 companies that experienced the largest change in insider shares in the last seven (7) days. The SEC defines an insider as any officer, director or 10% shareholder. It is not illegal for these people to buy or sell their own shares. In fact, since most of them get paid in stock options, it is expected. However, it is illegal for them to trade on inside information that has not been made public. So for example if there are drug trial results that are bad and not public, insiders cannot dump shares. That said, many people have observed that insiders - in general - seem to have a good track record at timing their purchases. All trades that are marked as part of a 10b5 plan are excluded from this report.
This is a list of the top 20 companies that experienced the largest change in insider shares in the last seven (7) days. The SEC defines an insider as any officer, director or 10% shareholder. It is not illegal for these people to buy or sell their own shares. In fact, since most of them get paid in stock options, it is expected. However, it is illegal for them to trade on inside information that has not been made public. So for example if there are drug trial results that are bad and not public, insiders cannot dump shares. That said, many people have observed that insiders - in general - seem to have a good track record at timing their purchases. All trades that are marked as part of a 10b5 plan are excluded from this report.
USD (DXY) up 0.13%, EUR down 0.19%, GBP down 0.25%, JPY down 0.20%, CNY Onshore up 0.05%, CNH Offshore down 0.01%, AUD down 0.82%
VIX up 4.72% to 11.09
Gold down 0.09% to $1,253.95
Silver down 0.10% to $16.82
Copper down 2.18% to $257.80
WTI Crude up 0.69% to $47.99
Brent Crude up 0.97% to $50.95
Natural Gas down 0.16% to $3.19
Corn down 0.13% to $3.72/bu
Wheat down 1.21% to $4.49/bu
Treasuries 2yr yields are up ~1.2bps at 1.270%, 10yr yields are up ~1.6bps at 2.296% and 30yr yields are up ~0.9bps at 2.978%
France 10yr yields 0.804%, down ~0.7bps on the day
Italy 10yr yields 2.266%, down ~2.4bps on the day
Spain 10yr yields 1.612%, down ~2.0bps on the day
Germany 10yr yields 0.321%, down ~0.3bps on the day
Trading Update
Market update – Eurozone equities and US futures are both down small. A lot of Asia was closed and the markets that were open saw mixed price action. What’s happening this morning? It’s all about earnings – there was very little macro news and investors are sifting through a busy Tues night/Wed morning of earnings (some of the big highlights include AAPL, AKAM, FEYE, Hugo Boss, Novo Nordisk, Solvay, and TWLO). The fate of the House GOP’s HC bill looks increasingly bleak (although Ryan will apparently release an amendment Wed aimed at assuaging moderates). AMD – Wallstreetbet newfags get cucked, hard.
Calendar for Wed May 3 – the focus will be on the ADP jobs report for Apr at 8:15amET (the St is modeling 175K vs. 263K in Mar), US non-manufacturing ISM at 10amET (the St is modeling 56, up from 55.2 in Mar), the FOMC decision (2pmET), the French presidential debate between Macron and Le Pen (due to start around ~2pmET), and earnings (ADP, BG, BNP, CDW, CLX, CVLT, DLPH, EL, FLOW, GRMN, HUM, ICE, MCK, NYT, Q, RAI, S, SPGI, SO, SPR, TAP, TWX, VSH, WCG, YUM pre-open and AIG, ALB, ANSS, ARRS, CAKE, CAR, CATM, CF, CRUS, CTL, DDD, FB, FIT, IAC, KHC, LNC, MET, MUR, NXPI, PRU, QRVO, RIG, SQ, TIVO, TSLA, TTMI, WMB after the close). o FOMC decision – the Fed statement on Wed (there won’t be a supplemental or Yellen presser) is expected to be pretty innocuous. Preview from JPMorgan’s M Feroli - we believe the Committee’s goal will be to acknowledge the softer run of data while still keeping June on the table as a live meeting. We continue to expect the Fed to hike rates at the June meeting, but we do not think the statement will send a strong signal of impending action. We look for the statement to say that economic growth slowed early in the year, but to add that it is in part due to transitory factors. We believe that the second paragraph of the statement will continue to note that risks are roughly balanced (http://bit.ly/2pcPKbw).
Europe – the major indices are down small. Laggard groups include autos, basic resources, tech, energy, and utilities while staples, banks, healthcare, and telecoms are outperforming. The big post-earnings stock rallies are coming in Novo Nordisk, Fresenius, Solvay, and Sage Group. The big post-earnings stock declines are coming in Hugo Boss and Nokian. VW put up solid results but the stock is in the red nonetheless (follow-through from the softer US sales numbers on Tues). The Apple disappointment is weighing on some Eurozone semi stocks (like Dialog, AMS, STM, etc.). Ericsson is weak after Moody’s downgraded the company to junk.
Asia – a lot of markets were closed in Asia (including Japan, HK, and Korea). The markets that were open saw mixed price action: mainland China (SHCOMP -0.27%, Shenzhen -0.27%, CSI 300 -0.39%), Taiwan (TAIEX +0.14%), Australia (ASX 200 -0.98%), and India (the major indices were down small). There wasn’t a lot of major news out of Asia. It was interesting that Taiwan ended higher (+0.14%) and saw strength in some tech names despite the AAPL “disappointment” (which suggests that people really weren’t all that disappointed by AAPL and are still looking forward to the iPhone 8 “super cycle”) – TSMC +0.76%, Hon Hai +0.5%, etc. Australia was weighed down by weakness in bank stocks (ANZ -2.79%, Commonwealth Bank of Australia -1.7%, National Australia Bank -2.7%, etc.).
Top Headlines for Wednesday
Economic data/monetary policy headlines for Wed morning 5/3 – it was a pretty slow morning of data and monetary news. The Eurozone Q1 GDP was inline w/the Bloomberg consensus (+1.7% Y/Y). Eurozone Mar PPI was a bit soft (-0.3% vs. the St -0.1%). Germany’s Apr unemployment fell 15K (a bit better than the St’s 11K decline forecast) and the UR was inline at 5.8%. The Chinese gov’t unleashed a barrage of assuring rhetoric and media articles in a bid to calm markets following the recent sell-off (per Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2qDq0mp).
Company-specific news update for Wed morning 5/3. It was a busy morning of European earnings. The big post-earnings stock rallies are coming in Novo Nordisk, Fresenius, Solvay, and Sage Group. The big post-earnings stock declines are coming in Hugo Boss and Nokian. VW put up solid results but the stock is in the red nonetheless (follow-through from the softer US sales numbers on Tues). The Apple disappointment is weighing on some Eurozone semi stocks (like Dialog, AMS, STM, etc.). Ericsson is weak after Moody’s downgraded the company to junk.
Company-specific news update from Tues night 5/2. Overall it was a very busy night of tech earnings and the figures in aggregate weren’t great. AAPL posted an underwhelming Q and guide and while most investors are still looking forward to the iPhone 8 “super-cycle” later this year the stock suffered after hours nonetheless (keep in mind AAPL shares have been VERY strong of late). The AAPL capital raise bump was largely inline w/expectations. TWLO was the biggest blow-up of the night; the guide for June/’17 was light but investors were more spooked by TWLO’s remark about the co “seeing some changes in the relationship w/our largest customer” (which is Uber). TWLO did show impressive new customer addition numbers in the Q but this was offset by the “largest customer” comment. Optical names are very much in focus after both IPHI and OCLR warned of a sharp slowdown in China demand. AKAM provided June guidance on the call that fell short of expectations. CRAY/NANO fell short across the board and VIAV’s June guide was a bit light. Not everything in tech was bad – AZPN, FEYE, GDDY, HUBS, PAYC, and TNET all were solidto- great (although the TWLO may cast a long shadow over SMID-cap cloud-y software names on Wed). Away from tech, the other big Tues night earnings came from ALL, DVA, FSLR, FTR, GILD, MDLZ, MTCH, MYGN, TEX, and WTW. MDLZ was solid, beating on EPS/revs and reiterating the full-year guide. GILD missed on top/bottom line for the Q and reiterated ’17 guidance. FTR’s Q1 was mixed and they cut the dividend 60%. In addition to earnings, Intact Financial Corporation (TSX:IFC) has agreed to acquire OneBeacon Insurance Group (NYSE:OB) for $18.10/shr cash. PRGO said its offices were searched as part of an ongoing US gov’t investigation into drug prices (per Bloomberg). o CTXS – the co received bids from a slew of PE firms (including Bain, Carlyle, and Thoma Bravo) and at least one strategic suitor. CTXS is working w/Goldman on the sales process. Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2p4wBFi o TRCO – NXST is preparing a bid for TRCO in a move that would challenge competing interest from SBGI and a BX/FOX group – Bloomberg. o Exchange M&A – a Bloomberg article discusses consolidation in the exchange industry. Singapore Exchange has talked w/potential partners including NDAQ and CME. CME and ICE talked about a merger last year. Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2p4P2K8
Bank execs tune out daily White House rhetoric; "I don't take Thy God-Emperor Trump seriously," said a senior executive at one of the country's six largest banks. "I'm listening less and less”. His comments were echoed by at least a dozen institutional investors and bank executives who spoke to Reuters – Reuters http://reut.rs/2quYDfj
Thy God-Emperor Trump gives hint of spending battle coming later this fall – while Congress was able to reach a funding compromise to keep the gov’t open until Sept 30 a far larger spending battle will accompany the F18 budget debate (and that debate will coincide w/the debt ceiling which will need to be hiked around the Sept timeframe). Thy God-Emperor Trump Tues morning lamented current Senate rules (which generally require 60+ votes to overcome filibuster opposition) and said the country needs a “good shutdown” – CNN http://cnn.it/2qoZdxK
Republican senators reject Thy God-Emperor Trump’s call to end the filibuster. Politico http://politi.co/2pCSDkH
Healthcare – the outlook for the House’s repeal/replace bill turns increasingly bleak – opposition from moderates is rising and this could doom Ryan’s latest HC bill. House Republicans are now “reckoning with the unthinkable: they may never be able to repeal Obamacare”. Worries about preexisting conditions has spurred Ryan to draft an amendment aimed at assuaging moderates (that amendment is due to be unveiled Wed) – Politico http://politi.co/2pWTsrd
Dodd-Frank overhaul – Democrats delay consideration in House; Senate very unlikely to pass Hensarling’s bill. Reuters. http://reut.rs/2qxinPj
Climate change - White House leaning toward exiting Paris climate pact – The Hill http://bit.ly/2p7HO8R
US/China – the NYT discusses how the relationship between the US and China has been much friendlier than investors feared back in 2016. Thy God-Emperor Trump has continued w/Obama’s policy of relative deference over China’s artificial island construction in the South China Sea. The North Korean nuclear crisis, which the WH believes requires Chinese assistance, is a large reason why relations have been so good. NYT http://nyti.ms/2qDkLDr
Will bond vigilantes care about rising deficits? Probably not. Bond vigilantes don't care so much about deficits or debt/GDP but only inflation. Thus increased deficits by themselves won't cause yields to spike although if those deficits were to fuel inflation the story would be different. At the end of the day long-term inflation trends are a function of demographics. FT http://on.ft.com/2qB3PNW
Auto plant shutdowns could be longer than normal this summer – Bloomberg says the auto industry may shutter plants and curb output for longer than normal this summer given weak sales and elevated inventories – Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2pH5nIV
Calendar of events to watch for the week of Mon May 1
Calendar for Thurs May 4 – the focus will be on the Eurozone services PMI for Apr, US productivity numbers for Q1 (the St is modeling +0.00% vs. +1.3% in Q4), the US trade balance for Mar at 8:30amET, US factory orders/durable goods for Mar at 10amET, Thy God-Emperor Trump’s speech aboard the Intrepid in NYC, and earnings (ABC, Adidas, AMCX, Anheuser Bush, APA, ARW, BLL, BMW, CCOI, CHD, CHH, CHK, COMM, D, DBD, DNKN, FLR, H, K, LITE, MSCI, MSG, OXY, REGN, RLGY, Siemens, SNI, SocGen, TPX, VIA’b, WIN, WLTW, ZTS pre-open and AAOI, ABCO, AGO, ATVI, CBS, HLF, IMPV, INFI, LC, MOH, MRO, MSI, MULE, OLED, SHAK, WEB, ZEN, ZG after the close).
Calendar for Fri May 5 – the focus will be on US jobs report for Apr at 8:30amET, Fed speakers (including Yellen speaking at Brown University at 1:30pmET), and earnings (CI, CTSH, MCO, MSGN, NPTN pre-open). o US jobs – it’s been several months since a monthly jobs report created a lot of controversy and the Apr release will likely remain innocuous (even the Mar 98K “miss” really wasn’t “weak” although another sub-100K print could add somewhat to recent growth anxieties). For Apr the St is modeling total adds of 190K (up from 98K in Mar) w/an UR of 4.6% (up small from 4.5%) and wages +0.3% M/M and +2.7% Y/Y.
Calendar for Sat May 6 – Berkshire’s annual meeting will take place in Omaha.
Calendar for Sun May 7 – the French election run-off will take place this day and Macron is expected to win (by ~20 points according to recent polls).
Catalysts for 2017 – big events to watch for 2017 (preliminary list – additional events likely to be added)
Fed meeting – decision out Wed 5/3
French presidential debate – between Macron and Le Pen – Wed May 3.
US jobs report for Apr – Fri 5/5
French election round two – Sun May 7
Obama will make his first major post-presidential speech Sun May 7 (he will be awarded the JFK Profile in Courage Award on that day).
Thy God-Emperor Trump travel ban - a court will begin considering Thy God-Emperor Trump’s travel ban on May 8
South Korea elections – South Korea will hold presidential elections May 9.
Thy God-Emperor Trump budget – his full budget (including taxes, infrastructure, and entitlements) will be published in May.
Thy God-Emperor Trump speech – Thy God-Emperor Trump will give his first commencement address as president on May 17 (Coast Guard Academy).
Iran – Iranian elections are Fri May 19
ACA/healthcare - May 22 is an important court date during which reimbursements paid to insurance companies providing coverage for low-income people through the exchanges will be considered.
US infrastructure – Thy God-Emperor Trump on 5/1 said his infrastructure plan will be out in 2-3 weeks (suggesting week of 5/15 or 5/22).
Flash PMIs for May – Wed May 24.
Fed minutes – minutes from the May 3 meeting will hit Wed May 24.
OPEC – the next formal OPEC summit is May 25
NATO summit – NATO will hold a summit May 25; Montenegro is expected to become a NATO member at this event; Thy God-Emperor Trump will attend.
G7 Leaders Summit May 26-27 in Italy.
US jobs – the May jobs report hits Fri June 2.
US financial regulatory review – the Treasury will present recommendations to Thy God-Emperor Trump around the end of May/start of June on ways to ease financial regulations.
ECB meeting June 8 – according to Reuters the ECB could “send a small signal towards reducing monetary stimulus” at this meeting.
UK elections – June 8.
Fed meeting – decision out Wed 6/14
French parliamentary elections – June 18
Georgia special election for Price’s old seat (run-off) – June 20.
ACA/healthcare - June 21 is the date by which insurers need to decide whether they will participate in the federally-run insurance exchanges for 2018.
OPEC – the current OPEC supply agreement is due to expire at the end of June.
Russia – European sanctions against Russia are due to expire in June.
China/MSCI - MSCI will announce the result of the China A shares inclusion proposal as part of the 2017 Market Classification Review in June 2017.
US bank stress tests – the Fed will publish bank stress test results in June.
G20 Leaders Summit Jul 7-8 2017 in Germany.
Greece – the country faces a bond maturity on Jul 17.
ECB meeting/press conf. Jul 20
Fed meeting – decision out Wed 7/26
Congress breaks for summer recess – Fri Jul 28. Congress returns Sept 5.
German elections – the next German elections will be held between Aug and Oct 2017.
US debt ceiling – the debt ceiling will need to be raised probably by the fall at the latest.
US gov’t funding – spending authorization expires on Sept 30.
Chinese politics – China’s 19th National Congress will take place in the fall of 2017 and will set the country’s political path for the next five years.
US – fiscal policy
Thy God-Emperor Trump gives hint of spending battle coming later this fall – while Congress was able to reach a funding compromise to keep the gov’t open until Sept 30 a far larger spending battle will accompany the F18 budget debate (and that debate will coincide w/the debt ceiling which will need to be hiked around the Sept timeframe). Thy God-Emperor Trump Tues morning lamented current Senate rules (which generally require 60+ votes to overcome filibuster opposition) and said the country needs a “good shutdown” – CNN http://cnn.it/2qoZdxK
Will bond vigilantes care about rising deficits? Probably not. Bond vigilantes don't care so much about deficits or debt/GDP but only inflation. Thus increased deficits by themselves won't cause yields to spike although if those deficits were to fuel inflation the story would be different. At the end of the day long-term inflation trends are a function of demographics. FT http://on.ft.com/2qB3PNW
US – domestic policy, politics
Healthcare – the outlook for the House’s repeal/replace bill turns increasingly bleak – opposition from moderates is rising and this could doom Ryan’s latest HC bill. House Republicans are now “reckoning with the unthinkable: they may never be able to repeal Obamacare”. Worries about preexisting conditions has spurred Ryan to draft an amendment aimed at assuaging moderates (that amendment is due to be unveiled Wed) – Politico http://politi.co/2pWTsrd
Republican senators reject Thy God-Emperor Trump’s call to end the filibuster. Politico http://politi.co/2pCSDkH
Former Acting AG Yates to contradict administration about Flynn at hearing – CNN http://cnn.it/2pvy3nG
Climate change - White House leaning toward exiting Paris climate pact – The Hill http://bit.ly/2p7HO8R
US – foreign policy
US/China – the NYT discusses how the relationship between the US and China has been much friendlier than investors feared back in 2016. Thy God-Emperor Trump has continued w/Obama’s policy of relative deference over China’s artificial island construction in the South China Sea. The North Korean nuclear crisis, which the WH believes requires Chinese assistance, is a large reason why relations have been so good. NYT http://nyti.ms/2qDkLDr
US – eco data, monetary policy
Auto sales recap from JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman – April SAAR tracked slightly softer than expected (SAAR 16.9MM vs. the St 17.1MM), but we believe sales -1.0% y/y is consistent with our theory of US LV SAAR plateauing at a high rate. GM and Ford sales were off more than the industry, although there were several positives in GM and Ford’s April sales reports worth highlighting, including that Ford’s ATPs rose +$1,900 y/y and GM’s +$600, both better than the industry +$303 (as per TrueCar ALG). GM’s inventories remain elevated (as per plan), although Ford’s are in check. http://bit.ly/2p7MQCm
Auto plant shutdowns could be longer than normal this summer – Bloomberg says the auto industry may shutter plants and curb output for longer than normal this summer given weak sales and elevated inventories – Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2pH5nIV
Jeff Gundlach sees summer correction in the stock market – CNBC http://cnb.cx/2pvAR4o
Europe
France – Le Pen tells Reuters she will take France out of the euro within two years if elected president and would prob. introduce capital controls during the exit process – Reuters http://reut.rs/2qpim2x Company-specific news
Allianz earnings - beat with €2.9bn operating profit vs our €2.8bn and co cons €2.74bn. Huttner. http://bit.ly/2oWxHYv
BHP - Moody's says Elliott plan would be "credit negative" for BHP – Reuters http://reut.rs/2pXmrvp
BNP earnings - solid Q1 driven by lower provisions and stronger Global Markets & corporate center revenues. D Lee. http://bit.ly/2p4ssl1
Deutsche Bank – China’s HNA has become DB’s biggest direct shareholder, upping its stake to just under 10% - Reuters http://cnb.cx/2qDcWxI
Ericsson – Moody’s downgrades its rating on Ericsson to junk – Bloomberg
Hugo Boss earnings - the headlines are a beat but we would argue low quality. Q1 17 Sales came in +1% organic to €651m, 3% ahead of JPME and 1% ahead of company released consensus. Adj EBITDA came in up 4% yoy to €97.4m or pleasingly slightly ahead of the FY target range (reiterated) of -3% to +3%. However, within the Sales beat, the critical Retail Sales came in 1% below incl LFL on -3% (JPME: -2%) and online sales still strikingly troubled at -27%. Flouquet. http://bit.ly/2p4E4EB
LafargeHolcim Ltd: In-line results on lowered expectations; FY guidance maintained but outlook on costs less supportive. Rall. http://bit.ly/2p4Ap9D
Nokian - Op. Profit in-line if adj. for accounting impact; FY17 guidance upgraded. Bhat. http://bit.ly/2pH4JeC
Novo Nordisk - EPS beat driven by one-off sales benefits in the US and better cost control. Vosser. http://bit.ly/2qxy0GH
Sage Group: H1 revenues ahead of consensus, with growth in Q2 at 6.3%, and margin to be H2 weighted. Pollard. http://bit.ly/2qxHBx2
Sainsbury FY results were bang in line on the profit, net debt and pension side. The positive of the release was the commentary on synergies, now expected to be achieved six months earlier than expected. The negatives were a very weak retail FCF generation and uninspiring prospects for 17/18. Olcese. http://bit.ly/2qDjFY9
Solvay delivered a 6% beat to consensus with FY17 EBITDA and cash flow guidance raised – Xiao Lu. http://bit.ly/2pX2NQ8
Thales: Q1 2017 sales beat consensus by 4%, with 11% organic growth yoy. Perry. http://bit.ly/2pEjPzg
VW reported overall a solid quarter with most divisions delivering ahead of expectations particularly the VW brand, Porsche and Audi as well as delivered a solid net cash position of €23.645bn despite a €5bn outflow for the diesel issues in the quarter and a €1bn cash injection into FS – Asumendi http://bit.ly/2pX2FA8
Asia/Emerging Markets
Japan – the WSJ discusses how Japan’s GPIF is pushing forward w/an increase in its real estate allocation; GPIF wants to get 5% of its entire portfolio into alternative assets – WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2prD8xm
USD (DXY) up 0.13%, EUR down 0.19%, GBP down 0.25%, JPY down 0.20%, CNY Onshore up 0.05%, CNH Offshore down 0.01%, AUD down 0.82%
VIX up 4.72% to 11.09
Gold down 0.09% to $1,253.95
Silver down 0.10% to $16.82
Copper down 2.18% to $257.80
WTI Crude up 0.69% to $47.99
Brent Crude up 0.97% to $50.95
Natural Gas down 0.16% to $3.19
Corn down 0.13% to $3.72/bu
Wheat down 1.21% to $4.49/bu
Treasuries 2yr yields are up ~1.2bps at 1.270%, 10yr yields are up ~1.6bps at 2.296% and 30yr yields are up ~0.9bps at 2.978%
France 10yr yields 0.804%, down ~0.7bps on the day
Italy 10yr yields 2.266%, down ~2.4bps on the day
Spain 10yr yields 1.612%, down ~2.0bps on the day
Germany 10yr yields 0.321%, down ~0.3bps on the day
Trading Update
Market update – Eurozone equities and US futures are both down small. A lot of Asia was closed and the markets that were open saw mixed price action. What’s happening this morning? It’s all about earnings – there was very little macro news and investors are sifting through a busy Tues night/Wed morning of earnings (some of the big highlights include AAPL, AKAM, FEYE, Hugo Boss, Novo Nordisk, Solvay, and TWLO). The fate of the House GOP’s HC bill looks increasingly bleak (although Ryan will apparently release an amendment Wed aimed at assuaging moderates). AMD – Wallstreetbet newfags get cucked, hard.
Calendar for Wed May 3 – the focus will be on the ADP jobs report for Apr at 8:15amET (the St is modeling 175K vs. 263K in Mar), US non-manufacturing ISM at 10amET (the St is modeling 56, up from 55.2 in Mar), the FOMC decision (2pmET), the French presidential debate between Macron and Le Pen (due to start around ~2pmET), and earnings (ADP, BG, BNP, CDW, CLX, CVLT, DLPH, EL, FLOW, GRMN, HUM, ICE, MCK, NYT, Q, RAI, S, SPGI, SO, SPR, TAP, TWX, VSH, WCG, YUM pre-open and AIG, ALB, ANSS, ARRS, CAKE, CAR, CATM, CF, CRUS, CTL, DDD, FB, FIT, IAC, KHC, LNC, MET, MUR, NXPI, PRU, QRVO, RIG, SQ, TIVO, TSLA, TTMI, WMB after the close). o FOMC decision – the Fed statement on Wed (there won’t be a supplemental or Yellen presser) is expected to be pretty innocuous. Preview from JPMorgan’s M Feroli - we believe the Committee’s goal will be to acknowledge the softer run of data while still keeping June on the table as a live meeting. We continue to expect the Fed to hike rates at the June meeting, but we do not think the statement will send a strong signal of impending action. We look for the statement to say that economic growth slowed early in the year, but to add that it is in part due to transitory factors. We believe that the second paragraph of the statement will continue to note that risks are roughly balanced (http://bit.ly/2pcPKbw).
Europe – the major indices are down small. Laggard groups include autos, basic resources, tech, energy, and utilities while staples, banks, healthcare, and telecoms are outperforming. The big post-earnings stock rallies are coming in Novo Nordisk, Fresenius, Solvay, and Sage Group. The big post-earnings stock declines are coming in Hugo Boss and Nokian. VW put up solid results but the stock is in the red nonetheless (follow-through from the softer US sales numbers on Tues). The Apple disappointment is weighing on some Eurozone semi stocks (like Dialog, AMS, STM, etc.). Ericsson is weak after Moody’s downgraded the company to junk.
Asia – a lot of markets were closed in Asia (including Japan, HK, and Korea). The markets that were open saw mixed price action: mainland China (SHCOMP -0.27%, Shenzhen -0.27%, CSI 300 -0.39%), Taiwan (TAIEX +0.14%), Australia (ASX 200 -0.98%), and India (the major indices were down small). There wasn’t a lot of major news out of Asia. It was interesting that Taiwan ended higher (+0.14%) and saw strength in some tech names despite the AAPL “disappointment” (which suggests that people really weren’t all that disappointed by AAPL and are still looking forward to the iPhone 8 “super cycle”) – TSMC +0.76%, Hon Hai +0.5%, etc. Australia was weighed down by weakness in bank stocks (ANZ -2.79%, Commonwealth Bank of Australia -1.7%, National Australia Bank -2.7%, etc.).
Top Headlines for Wednesday
Economic data/monetary policy headlines for Wed morning 5/3 – it was a pretty slow morning of data and monetary news. The Eurozone Q1 GDP was inline w/the Bloomberg consensus (+1.7% Y/Y). Eurozone Mar PPI was a bit soft (-0.3% vs. the St -0.1%). Germany’s Apr unemployment fell 15K (a bit better than the St’s 11K decline forecast) and the UR was inline at 5.8%. The Chinese gov’t unleashed a barrage of assuring rhetoric and media articles in a bid to calm markets following the recent sell-off (per Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2qDq0mp).
Company-specific news update for Wed morning 5/3. It was a busy morning of European earnings. The big post-earnings stock rallies are coming in Novo Nordisk, Fresenius, Solvay, and Sage Group. The big post-earnings stock declines are coming in Hugo Boss and Nokian. VW put up solid results but the stock is in the red nonetheless (follow-through from the softer US sales numbers on Tues). The Apple disappointment is weighing on some Eurozone semi stocks (like Dialog, AMS, STM, etc.). Ericsson is weak after Moody’s downgraded the company to junk.
Company-specific news update from Tues night 5/2. Overall it was a very busy night of tech earnings and the figures in aggregate weren’t great. AAPL posted an underwhelming Q and guide and while most investors are still looking forward to the iPhone 8 “super-cycle” later this year the stock suffered after hours nonetheless (keep in mind AAPL shares have been VERY strong of late). The AAPL capital raise bump was largely inline w/expectations. TWLO was the biggest blow-up of the night; the guide for June/’17 was light but investors were more spooked by TWLO’s remark about the co “seeing some changes in the relationship w/our largest customer” (which is Uber). TWLO did show impressive new customer addition numbers in the Q but this was offset by the “largest customer” comment. Optical names are very much in focus after both IPHI and OCLR warned of a sharp slowdown in China demand. AKAM provided June guidance on the call that fell short of expectations. CRAY/NANO fell short across the board and VIAV’s June guide was a bit light. Not everything in tech was bad – AZPN, FEYE, GDDY, HUBS, PAYC, and TNET all were solidto- great (although the TWLO may cast a long shadow over SMID-cap cloud-y software names on Wed). Away from tech, the other big Tues night earnings came from ALL, DVA, FSLR, FTR, GILD, MDLZ, MTCH, MYGN, TEX, and WTW. MDLZ was solid, beating on EPS/revs and reiterating the full-year guide. GILD missed on top/bottom line for the Q and reiterated ’17 guidance. FTR’s Q1 was mixed and they cut the dividend 60%. In addition to earnings, Intact Financial Corporation (TSX:IFC) has agreed to acquire OneBeacon Insurance Group (NYSE:OB) for $18.10/shr cash. PRGO said its offices were searched as part of an ongoing US gov’t investigation into drug prices (per Bloomberg). o CTXS – the co received bids from a slew of PE firms (including Bain, Carlyle, and Thoma Bravo) and at least one strategic suitor. CTXS is working w/Goldman on the sales process. Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2p4wBFi o TRCO – NXST is preparing a bid for TRCO in a move that would challenge competing interest from SBGI and a BX/FOX group – Bloomberg. o Exchange M&A – a Bloomberg article discusses consolidation in the exchange industry. Singapore Exchange has talked w/potential partners including NDAQ and CME. CME and ICE talked about a merger last year. Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2p4P2K8
Bank execs tune out daily White House rhetoric; "I don't take Thy God-Emperor Trump seriously," said a senior executive at one of the country's six largest banks. "I'm listening less and less”. His comments were echoed by at least a dozen institutional investors and bank executives who spoke to Reuters – Reuters http://reut.rs/2quYDfj
Thy God-Emperor Trump gives hint of spending battle coming later this fall – while Congress was able to reach a funding compromise to keep the gov’t open until Sept 30 a far larger spending battle will accompany the F18 budget debate (and that debate will coincide w/the debt ceiling which will need to be hiked around the Sept timeframe). Thy God-Emperor Trump Tues morning lamented current Senate rules (which generally require 60+ votes to overcome filibuster opposition) and said the country needs a “good shutdown” – CNN http://cnn.it/2qoZdxK
Republican senators reject Thy God-Emperor Trump’s call to end the filibuster. Politico http://politi.co/2pCSDkH
Healthcare – the outlook for the House’s repeal/replace bill turns increasingly bleak – opposition from moderates is rising and this could doom Ryan’s latest HC bill. House Republicans are now “reckoning with the unthinkable: they may never be able to repeal Obamacare”. Worries about preexisting conditions has spurred Ryan to draft an amendment aimed at assuaging moderates (that amendment is due to be unveiled Wed) – Politico http://politi.co/2pWTsrd
Dodd-Frank overhaul – Democrats delay consideration in House; Senate very unlikely to pass Hensarling’s bill. Reuters. http://reut.rs/2qxinPj
Climate change - White House leaning toward exiting Paris climate pact – The Hill http://bit.ly/2p7HO8R
US/China – the NYT discusses how the relationship between the US and China has been much friendlier than investors feared back in 2016. Thy God-Emperor Trump has continued w/Obama’s policy of relative deference over China’s artificial island construction in the South China Sea. The North Korean nuclear crisis, which the WH believes requires Chinese assistance, is a large reason why relations have been so good. NYT http://nyti.ms/2qDkLDr
Will bond vigilantes care about rising deficits? Probably not. Bond vigilantes don't care so much about deficits or debt/GDP but only inflation. Thus increased deficits by themselves won't cause yields to spike although if those deficits were to fuel inflation the story would be different. At the end of the day long-term inflation trends are a function of demographics. FT http://on.ft.com/2qB3PNW
Auto plant shutdowns could be longer than normal this summer – Bloomberg says the auto industry may shutter plants and curb output for longer than normal this summer given weak sales and elevated inventories – Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2pH5nIV
Calendar of events to watch for the week of Mon May 1
Calendar for Thurs May 4 – the focus will be on the Eurozone services PMI for Apr, US productivity numbers for Q1 (the St is modeling +0.00% vs. +1.3% in Q4), the US trade balance for Mar at 8:30amET, US factory orders/durable goods for Mar at 10amET, Thy God-Emperor Trump’s speech aboard the Intrepid in NYC, and earnings (ABC, Adidas, AMCX, Anheuser Bush, APA, ARW, BLL, BMW, CCOI, CHD, CHH, CHK, COMM, D, DBD, DNKN, FLR, H, K, LITE, MSCI, MSG, OXY, REGN, RLGY, Siemens, SNI, SocGen, TPX, VIA’b, WIN, WLTW, ZTS pre-open and AAOI, ABCO, AGO, ATVI, CBS, HLF, IMPV, INFI, LC, MOH, MRO, MSI, MULE, OLED, SHAK, WEB, ZEN, ZG after the close).
Calendar for Fri May 5 – the focus will be on US jobs report for Apr at 8:30amET, Fed speakers (including Yellen speaking at Brown University at 1:30pmET), and earnings (CI, CTSH, MCO, MSGN, NPTN pre-open). o US jobs – it’s been several months since a monthly jobs report created a lot of controversy and the Apr release will likely remain innocuous (even the Mar 98K “miss” really wasn’t “weak” although another sub-100K print could add somewhat to recent growth anxieties). For Apr the St is modeling total adds of 190K (up from 98K in Mar) w/an UR of 4.6% (up small from 4.5%) and wages +0.3% M/M and +2.7% Y/Y.
Calendar for Sat May 6 – Berkshire’s annual meeting will take place in Omaha.
Calendar for Sun May 7 – the French election run-off will take place this day and Macron is expected to win (by ~20 points according to recent polls).
Catalysts for 2017 – big events to watch for 2017 (preliminary list – additional events likely to be
added)
Fed meeting – decision out Wed 5/3
French presidential debate – between Macron and Le Pen – Wed May 3.
US jobs report for Apr – Fri 5/5
French election round two – Sun May 7
Obama will make his first major post-presidential speech Sun May 7 (he will be awarded the JFK Profile in Courage Award on that day).
Thy God-Emperor Trump travel ban - a court will begin considering Thy God-Emperor Trump’s travel ban on May 8
South Korea elections – South Korea will hold presidential elections May 9.
Thy God-Emperor Trump budget – his full budget (including taxes, infrastructure, and entitlements) will be published in May.
Thy God-Emperor Trump speech – Thy God-Emperor Trump will give his first commencement address as president on May 17 (Coast Guard Academy).
Iran – Iranian elections are Fri May 19
ACA/healthcare - May 22 is an important court date during which reimbursements paid to insurance companies providing coverage for low-income people through the exchanges will be considered.
US infrastructure – Thy God-Emperor Trump on 5/1 said his infrastructure plan will be out in 2-3 weeks (suggesting week of 5/15 or 5/22).
Flash PMIs for May – Wed May 24.
Fed minutes – minutes from the May 3 meeting will hit Wed May 24.
OPEC – the next formal OPEC summit is May 25
NATO summit – NATO will hold a summit May 25; Montenegro is expected to become a NATO member at this event; Thy God-Emperor Trump will attend.
G7 Leaders Summit May 26-27 in Italy.
US jobs – the May jobs report hits Fri June 2.
US financial regulatory review – the Treasury will present recommendations to Thy God-Emperor Trump around the end of May/start of June on ways to ease financial regulations.
ECB meeting June 8 – according to Reuters the ECB could “send a small signal towards reducing monetary stimulus” at this meeting.
UK elections – June 8.
Fed meeting – decision out Wed 6/14
French parliamentary elections – June 18
Georgia special election for Price’s old seat (run-off) – June 20.
ACA/healthcare - June 21 is the date by which insurers need to decide whether they will participate in the federally-run insurance exchanges for 2018.
OPEC – the current OPEC supply agreement is due to expire at the end of June.
Russia – European sanctions against Russia are due to expire in June.
China/MSCI - MSCI will announce the result of the China A shares inclusion proposal as part of the 2017 Market Classification Review in June 2017.
US bank stress tests – the Fed will publish bank stress test results in June.
G20 Leaders Summit Jul 7-8 2017 in Germany.
Greece – the country faces a bond maturity on Jul 17.
ECB meeting/press conf. Jul 20
Fed meeting – decision out Wed 7/26
Congress breaks for summer recess – Fri Jul 28. Congress returns Sept 5.
German elections – the next German elections will be held between Aug and Oct 2017.
US debt ceiling – the debt ceiling will need to be raised probably by the fall at the latest.
US gov’t funding – spending authorization expires on Sept 30.
Chinese politics – China’s 19th National Congress will take place in the fall of 2017 and will set the country’s political path for the next five years.
US – fiscal policy
Thy God-Emperor Trump gives hint of spending battle coming later this fall – while Congress was able to reach a funding compromise to keep the gov’t open until Sept 30 a far larger spending battle will accompany the F18 budget debate (and that debate will coincide w/the debt ceiling which will need to be hiked around the Sept timeframe). Thy God-Emperor Trump Tues morning lamented current Senate rules (which generally require 60+ votes to overcome filibuster opposition) and said the country needs a “good shutdown” – CNN http://cnn.it/2qoZdxK
Will bond vigilantes care about rising deficits? Probably not. Bond vigilantes don't care so much about deficits or debt/GDP but only inflation. Thus increased deficits by themselves won't cause yields to spike although if those deficits were to fuel inflation the story would be different. At the end of the day long-term inflation trends are a function of demographics. FT http://on.ft.com/2qB3PNW
US – domestic policy, politics
Healthcare – the outlook for the House’s repeal/replace bill turns increasingly bleak – opposition from moderates is rising and this could doom Ryan’s latest HC bill. House Republicans are now “reckoning with the unthinkable: they may never be able to repeal Obamacare”. Worries about preexisting conditions has spurred Ryan to draft an amendment aimed at assuaging moderates (that amendment is due to be unveiled Wed) – Politico http://politi.co/2pWTsrd
Republican senators reject Thy God-Emperor Trump’s call to end the filibuster. Politico http://politi.co/2pCSDkH
Former Acting AG Yates to contradict administration about Flynn at hearing – CNN http://cnn.it/2pvy3nG
Climate change - White House leaning toward exiting Paris climate pact – The Hill http://bit.ly/2p7HO8R
US – foreign policy
US/China – the NYT discusses how the relationship between the US and China has been much friendlier than investors feared back in 2016. Thy God-Emperor Trump has continued w/Obama’s policy of relative deference over China’s artificial island construction in the South China Sea. The North Korean nuclear crisis, which the WH believes requires Chinese assistance, is a large reason why relations have been so good. NYT http://nyti.ms/2qDkLDr
US – eco data, monetary policy
Auto sales recap from JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman – April SAAR tracked slightly softer than expected (SAAR 16.9MM vs. the St 17.1MM), but we believe sales -1.0% y/y is consistent with our theory of US LV SAAR plateauing at a high rate. GM and Ford sales were off more than the industry, although there were several positives in GM and Ford’s April sales reports worth highlighting, including that Ford’s ATPs rose +$1,900 y/y and GM’s +$600, both better than the industry +$303 (as per TrueCar ALG). GM’s inventories remain elevated (as per plan), although Ford’s are in check. http://bit.ly/2p7MQCm
Auto plant shutdowns could be longer than normal this summer – Bloomberg says the auto industry may shutter plants and curb output for longer than normal this summer given weak sales and elevated inventories – Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2pH5nIV
Jeff Gundlach sees summer correction in the stock market – CNBC http://cnb.cx/2pvAR4o
Europe
France – Le Pen tells Reuters she will take France out of the euro within two years if elected president and would prob. introduce capital controls during the exit process – Reuters http://reut.rs/2qpim2x Company-specific news
Allianz earnings - beat with €2.9bn operating profit vs our €2.8bn and co cons €2.74bn. Huttner. http://bit.ly/2oWxHYv
BHP - Moody's says Elliott plan would be "credit negative" for BHP – Reuters http://reut.rs/2pXmrvp
BNP earnings - solid Q1 driven by lower provisions and stronger Global Markets & corporate center revenues. D Lee. http://bit.ly/2p4ssl1
Deutsche Bank – China’s HNA has become DB’s biggest direct shareholder, upping its stake to just under 10% - Reuters http://cnb.cx/2qDcWxI
Ericsson – Moody’s downgrades its rating on Ericsson to junk – Bloomberg
Hugo Boss earnings - the headlines are a beat but we would argue low quality. Q1 17 Sales came in +1% organic to €651m, 3% ahead of JPME and 1% ahead of company released consensus. Adj EBITDA came in up 4% yoy to €97.4m or pleasingly slightly ahead of the FY target range (reiterated) of -3% to +3%. However, within the Sales beat, the critical Retail Sales came in 1% below incl LFL on -3% (JPME: -2%) and online sales still strikingly troubled at -27%. Flouquet. http://bit.ly/2p4E4EB
LafargeHolcim Ltd: In-line results on lowered expectations; FY guidance maintained but outlook on costs less supportive. Rall. http://bit.ly/2p4Ap9D
Nokian - Op. Profit in-line if adj. for accounting impact; FY17 guidance upgraded. Bhat. http://bit.ly/2pH4JeC
Novo Nordisk - EPS beat driven by one-off sales benefits in the US and better cost control. Vosser. http://bit.ly/2qxy0GH
Sage Group: H1 revenues ahead of consensus, with growth in Q2 at 6.3%, and margin to be H2 weighted. Pollard. http://bit.ly/2qxHBx2
Sainsbury FY results were bang in line on the profit, net debt and pension side. The positive of the release was the commentary on synergies, now expected to be achieved six months earlier than expected. The negatives were a very weak retail FCF generation and uninspiring prospects for 17/18. Olcese. http://bit.ly/2qDjFY9
Solvay delivered a 6% beat to consensus with FY17 EBITDA and cash flow guidance raised – Xiao Lu. http://bit.ly/2pX2NQ8
Thales: Q1 2017 sales beat consensus by 4%, with 11% organic growth yoy. Perry. http://bit.ly/2pEjPzg
VW reported overall a solid quarter with most divisions delivering ahead of expectations particularly the VW brand, Porsche and Audi as well as delivered a solid net cash position of €23.645bn despite a €5bn outflow for the diesel issues in the quarter and a €1bn cash injection into FS – Asumendi http://bit.ly/2pX2FA8
Asia/Emerging Markets
Japan – the WSJ discusses how Japan’s GPIF is pushing forward w/an increase in its real estate allocation; GPIF wants to get 5% of its entire portfolio into alternative assets – WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2prD8xm
Porsche Inter Auto BG EOOD. Jul 2010 – Feb 2013 2 years 8 months. Managing Director VW Porsche Inter Auto (Porsche Sofia Iztok VW) Sep 2008 – Aug 2010 2 years. ... CEO/ Founder at Automotive Trading Bulgaria Ltd. (ATB) CEO/ Founder at Automotive Trading Bulgaria Ltd. (ATB) Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski. View profile View profile ... BG is a top aftermarket supplier that’s sold exclusively through a worldwide network of distributors since 1971. BG Find a Shop If you would like to extend the life of your vehicle, find the shop near you that performs BG Automotive Maintenance Services. Managing Director at Vise Auto ltd and Buldrive Ltd Bulgaria area 32 connections. Join to Connect. Vise Auto ltd. University of Exeter. ... Sofia, Bulgaria. Managing Director of a company in the car trading industry. Import of luxury vehicles from the United States of America to Bulgaria. Expanding selling network in Bulgaria and Greece ... Company Name: B G Auto Engineers Pvt Ltd: Location: Gat no 825, Vill Sanaswadi Tal:Shirur Dist Pune 412208 PUNE, MAHARASHTRA: Country/Region: India : Year Established Company Name: BGS Auto Pvt. Ltd. Location: C-189, Phase VI, Focsal Point Ludhiana, Punjab: Country/Region: India : Year Established: 1992: Employees Total: 101 - 500
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